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February 26, 2017 Oscar Predictions

Best Picture
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Any of the above three, but, ultimately La La Land
Should Have Been Nominated: The Birth of a Nation, Sully over Arrival, Hell or High Water

Best Actor
Will Win: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Could Win: Denzel Washington (Fences)
Should Win: Casey Affleck
Should Have Been Nominated: Tom Hanks (Sully) over Viggo Mortenson
Washington was so powerful (second only maybe to his performance in Training Day), but it was the utter self-hate and the consistency of his performance that will lead to an Affleck victory.

Best Actress
Will Win: Emma Stone (La La Land)
Could Win: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Should Win: Isabelle Huppert
Should Have Been Nominated: Amy Adams (Arrival) over Meryl Streep
This is the closest race of the big six. Huppert and Portman both gave better all-around performances than Stone (who was a little weak on the singing and dancing, but made up for it with her acting and, ultimately, this is what the award recognizes). But nobody saw Elle or Jackie and Stone’s performances had such range that really gave La La Land the life that it needed to succeed as well as it did.

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Could Win: Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Should Have Been Nominated: Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals) over Michael Shannon

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Viola Davis (Fences)
Could Win: No one else has a chance
Should Win: Viola Davis
Should Have Been Nominated: The Academy got this one right.

Best Director
Will Win: Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Could Win: Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Should Win: Damien Chazelle
Should Have Been Nominated: Clint Eastwood (Sully)

 

IMO, the most deserving candidates, almost entirely, won their category. While The Revenant is the best movie I've ever seen, there is no denying that Spotlight was extremely well made and didn't have a single flaw.

I am obviously most happy about my man crush FINALLY earning what he should have won years ago. What an amazing speech he gave. His performance was the best of the year and the only one better than Brie Larson who perfectly exemplified a situation that, unfortunately, could happen to any of us. Alicia Vikander will become a household name by this time next year. She worked magic with an Eddie Redmayne, who was one Leondardo DiCaprio away from becoming just the 6th person ever to win back to back acting awards.

Stallone's not winning was absolutely the right call. Jacob Trembley just have been up there instead of him and, while Marky Rylance was deserving, Tom Hardy should have won this award.

Directing and best picture splitting was fine. Mad Max deserved all of its awards. The sound and the visuals of that movie were out of this world.

I was not a fan of Birdman and didn't understand Alejandro G. Iñárritu winning best director last year. This year is a completely different story. The Revenant is just an out of this moviegoing experience.

The 5 best movies of the year (I'm at 65 and counting) were

1. The Revenant
2. Room
3. Sicario
4. Ex Machina
5A. Brooklyn
5B. Straight Outta Compton

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2015 Oscar Prediction (for 2014 movies)

Best Picture

Will Win: Boyhood (70%)

Could Win: Birdman (25%), American Sniper (5%)

Has No Chance to Win: The other five nominees

Should Win: American Sniper

Should Have Been Nominated: Foxcatcher

Best Director

Will Win: Richard Linklater, Boyhood (55%)

Could Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman (45%)

Has No Chance to Win: The other three nominees

Should Win: Linklater

Should Have Been Nominated: Clint Eastwood, American Sniper

Best Actor

Will Win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything (50%)

Could Win: Michael Keaton, Birdman (40%), Bradley Cooper, American Sniper (10%)

Has No Chance to Win: Cumberbutch, Carell

Should Win: Redmayne or Cooper (I am torn)

Should Have Been Nominated: Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler

Best Actress

Will Win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice (100%)

Could Win: No one else has a chance

Has No Chance to Win: No one

Should Win: Moore

Should Have Been Nominated: Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: JK Simmons, Whiplash (75%)

Could Win: Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher (12.5%), Edward Norton, Birdman (12.5%)

Has No Chance to Win: Robert Duvall, The Judge

Should Win: Simmons

Should Have Been Nominated: Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (100%)

Could Win: No one else has a chance

Has No Chance to Win: No one

Should Win: Arquette

Should Have Been Nominated: Sienna Miller, American Sniper

February 7, 2015

The Top 10 Performances by a Lead Actor for 2014 movies in order

1. Bradley Cooper - American Sniper
2. Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
3. Steve Carell - Foxcatcher
4. Benedict Cumberbutch - The Imitation Game
5. Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler
6. Oscar Isaac - A Most Violent Year
7. David Oyelowo - Selma
8. Ben Affleck - Gone Girl
9. Matthew McConaughey - Interstellar
10. Brad Pitt - Fury

You notice that there is no Michael Keaton (Birdman) on this list. I don't give much credit for playing yourself. I realize he will probably win unless Redmayne can pull the upset. The performance was average. I don't see the hype. Of the five men nominated for Best Lead Actor, only Keaton did not play a real life character (unless you count playing himself). I also did not know where to put Ellar Coltrane (Boyhood). He is probably deserving of a top 10 spot, but he's hard to classify, much like ET is hard for me to rank on my all-time favorite movies list. I have not yet seen Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel) or Bill Murray (St. Vincent).  Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner) was close to making my list, but I just hated the movie and his incoherence wore on me by the end of the film. I had similar feelings towards A Most Serious Man (Philip Seymour Hoffman's film). It was hard to put Channing Tatum (Foxcatcher) on the list if it was already occupied by someone in the same movie. This is no knock on Tatum, who was excellent. Miles Teller (Whiplash) look like he endured some serious physical and mental pain. I still don't think he's that great of an actor, but this performance was good...just not top 10 good. Jeremy Renner (Kill the Messenger) had a spot in the top 10 until December arrived. He's performance was on par with McConaughey's and Pitt's, but this was a top 10 list and not a top 11 list.

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Philip Seymour Hoffman's Top 10 - I was saddened by Hoffman's death, but not overly surprised. I didn't suspect he was a drug addict, although hearing that he went through a 25 year period of being clean was surprising. I guess I'm just a little jaded when it comes to untimely deaths in Hollywood. I read a lot of articles about him after his death and did feel badly for him. Dying alone on your bathroom floor with a syringe stuck in your arm? That sounds like a terrible way to go. And I feel for his three children. He was a very, very good actor and some of his movies I will remember forever. While I personally did not like Capote at all, I thought he did a great job portraying the man and probably deserved the Best Actor Academy Award. In any case, here are my 10 favorite films he starred in and not necessarily based on his 10 best performances

1. Cold Mountain
2. Moneyball
3. Doubt
4. Almost Famous
5. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
6. The Savages
7. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
8. 25th Hour
9. Magnolia
10. Punch-Drunk Love

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I was sorry to see the death of Tom Clancy. While I did not read his novels, my father and one of my best friends both read just about everything he put on paper. He had four of his Jack Ryan books turned into movies. I thought they were all pretty good. I know my list is different from most people's, but here it is.

1. Clear and Present Danger
2. Patriot Games
3. The Sum Of All Fears
4. The Hunt For Red October (I know that this is the favorite of most. I've tried SO hard to get into it because I know how much my close friends love it, but it just never interests me. And I love submarine movies.)

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Full list of 2013 Academy Award Nominations http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/oscar-nominations-2013-full-list/story?id=18174507.

Lincoln got way too much love. The movie was well made, but this is something that should a requirement for high school juniors to see in 11th grade US History class. As a featured film, it was way too long and extremely boring. While it is such an important movie with fantastic acting and a great director, I don't think it is Oscar deserving. It wasn't groundbreaking. At now point did I say "Wow". Daniel Day-Lewis was awesome as President Abraham Lincoln and he deserves his Best Actor nomination. He's my vote to win too and I have seen all five movies which have a Best Actor nominated star in them.

Ben Affleck got snubbed. He deserved a Best Director nomination for Argo. Argo was a fantastic movie and it could win Best Picture. It would be a little embarrassing if it did win and he didn't even get a nomination. I haven't seen all of the movies yet to discuss my other predictions, but I don't think Sally Field or Tommy Lee Jones deserved nominations for Lincoln. Not by a long shot. I have no interest in writing a review for that movie.

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Tony Scott - I was saddened to see that Tony Scott committed suicide. Scott never gained the critical acclaim that his older brother Ridley earned, but Tony created some great popcorn flicks. He combined with Denzel Washington, one of my favorite actors of all-time, on five different films. Below are my favorite Tony Scott directed movies, listed in order.

1. True Romance
2. Crimson Tide
3. Top Gun
4. Man on Fire
5. Deja Vu

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  1. A damn shame. Word is he had inoperable brain cancer, so it would seem he was looking to save himself some pain. Either that or he did the only thing he could to put an end to Top Gun 2. The man deserves some serious respect – that’s quite the stout resume he had. True Romance is also my tops and I would probably put Beverly Hills Cop 2 in the Top 5 (I haven’t seen Deja Vu).


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